China entrance as a global financial powerhouse

China entrance as a global financial powerhouse

The World Bank kept its forecast in Dec 2017 for China's 2018 and 2019 GDP growth unchanged at 6.4 per cent and 6.3 per cent.

China's membership status for European Bank for Development (EBRD) has been approved on 14 of December back in 2015. China has been a longtime stakeholder in many global development financial institutions. The EBRD has a different focus which is to spur development in private sector and promoting market economy democracy. China is stamping its mark on world finance by gaining membership status in differing global institutions. The rise of China is happening which mirrors the higher responsibility undertaken by China in global economic policy drafting especially in Eastern Europe as well as North Africa as part of EBRD operational region. G-20 and China's role to tackle the world financial crisis has helped fortify the basis for approaching China. Asian Infrastructure Bank (AIIB) and New Bank of Development (NDB) is a shining example of new outward strategy taken by China. The Silk Road Funds is also set up for the same purpose for China's ambitious plans to utilize the immense space between Europe.

The combined capital of US$150 billion from both AIIB and NDB will not have far reaching impact in terms of funding for infrastructure for emerging economies and countries. A conservative estimate puts the figure between US$ 1 to 1.5 trillion every year. Silk Road Funds, China Development Institution and CITIC will need to pump more funds, but there will be unmet needs and there are plenty of space for more initiatives. The new strategy undertaken by China will influence its behavior in other existing institutions, especially regional institutions. China is becoming frustrated for not having achieved its objectives for increasing role in global world finance and institutions, such as World Bank and IMF. ADB fell short of China's expectations. AIIB is a major roadblock and challenge to ADB.

China's engagement in these institutions is not just restricted to Asian region. For many decades China has played larger roles in Africa. Many Chinese development banks are all signing up for programs launched by Africa Development Bank. PBOC and Africa Development Bank announced a US2 billion Africa Growing Fund Together, with disbursement tenure over 10 years jointly financed by the two regions. China signed up as a member for Inter-American Bank for Development in 2008. It marks the increasing influence of Chinese ties with Caribbean and Latin America region. It has made co-investment contribution to the development bank. China started as a small insignificant shareholder, similar to EBRD, where it holds a 0.004% stake. Since 1985 from its first year of membership, China took part in eight new rounds of funding for the Africa Development Fund. China now has a 2.052% stake in the latest fund.

China semi government linked institutions and corporations are stepping a gear to engage with global financial establishment. China national wealth fund called State Administration for Foreign Exchange pumped funds into a IFC's Asset Management Company. The objective is to attract long term equity from institutions. It is the major investor in EBRD's similar instrument. Debt capital arrangement for funding is being considered.

Many things are yet to be learned as mentioned by Governor for PBOC. China has many to learn from general development to investment experience. Public and private partnerships formed rapidly around the country have been an easy method to avoid borrowing limits for local government. EBRD can offer much experience for PPP and it is a leaning ground for China. While China is still observing from the start and learning all it could, it will someday have to face the harsh truth around global financial establishment. They are heavily scrutinized by public and political pressure, and China has to navigate cautiously due to many sensitive political issues surrounding the institutions.

Some fear the uprising of Chinese financial maneuvers in the world. Despite heavy engagement and higher voting power, China will not change radically its operations for existing institutions. China can actually learn more by co-operating with global financial establishment and strive to invest better internationally and be more efficient in its capital usage locally.

China Economic Growth

China Economic Growth

China's Prime Minister, Li Keqiang has been so sure about the growth of Economic of China this year will reach their target. He admitted there might be a little obstacle which will prevent their improvement. But he does believe that it is impossible with a projection that said China Economy will fail their target this year. He and his administration staff pretty confident that they will achieve 6,5 until 7 percent raise as their target. This is contrary to the fact that these years the economy of China has been weakening very fast than the expected, didn't like many years in the past, which make China easily reaching the target of Economic Growth. The numbers of 6,5 percent to 7 percent actually lower than their usual target as the second biggest economic growth rate. Usually, they reach for 10 percent growth. Mr. Li also consider the economic growth for the next five years for within the average of 6,5 percent.

This projection has made the policy maker to wiggle a little. This percentage has some little higher expectations than the experts has predicted. The Chief of Economist of China at UBS AG, which is a financial services company from Swiss, Wang Tao, has said in a Beijing seminar that this year China Economic will growth about 6,2 percent. The prime minister is pretty confident, though there's a fact that the largest economic growth for China in second place last year just reach 6,9 percent, which is the lowest rate for this 25 years.

Prime Minister Li Keqiang, on the annual legislative this year has said that it was the crucial period for China to find itself. And they have to build their powerful drivers to accelerate the development of this new economy.

According to the sources, China has increased a growth on its debt. And this is having been clarified by Prime Minister Li Keqiang. He said that the factor of which cause this to happen is the global economy and overcapacity, also a low on demand at the market, especially for steel and coal industry. They have recover slower than he expected from the global economy problem. But he said again that they already find a method to handle this situation. He proposed the best way to handle this situation is to nurture a supply side economy. This concept will let the manufacture and the services provider be more competitive, but also give its good quality.

As for the steel and coal industry problem, they made a policy to trim the factory overcapacity and cut the employee. Though so, they would not be neglected by the government. He said that they have to provide 100 billion yuan to help the employee who has been layoffs because of this policy until next two years. These funds are intended to pay their severance and to funds the retraining program. It is noted that this year will be 1,8 million employees to be layoffs around steel and coal company.

On his speech on the annual legislative also criticize about zombie enterprise, which is the unproductive industry which is kept alive by the subsidies and the loan. He said that government will handle it in an active method, but also wiser with the use of merger, debt restructure, reorganizations, and also bankruptcy liquidations. He has set 10 million jobs to be generated in urban areas, and he will hold the unemployment until below than 4,5 percent in city areas. He also places an 800 billion yuan to invest in a railway construction and 1,65 trillion yuan to build the roads. He has targeted the deficit of the budget as much as 3 percent of gross domestic product for this year, which is higher than last year for only 2,3 percent.

Changing of Economic Strategy and Timeline

Changing of Economic Strategy and Timeline

China is the worlds more populous nation, with it's capital in Beijing and population: 1.4 billion, currency: Renminbi, President: Xi Jinping. Chinese shoppers recently spent a record $25bn in Singles Day, the annual event for single people in China.

E-commerce giant Alibaba promoted the event held on 11 November and many companies offered big discounts for the 24 hour period. Singles Day is four times bigger than Cyber Monday and Black Friday, the US calendar shopping days.

Looking back on how we got here, previous China ambassador from Mexico, made a few comments and insights on the economic and political challenges facing China, drawing his expertise from Mexican history. Mexico and China have distinct differences but Mexican past economic history may give some useful template to gain a deeper understanding of China. Many analysts do not give enough coverage to Mexican history or other emerging nations' economic history.

Many people often take Japan and US as references to compare against China even as the countries have different political institutions. There are also vast different in the nations' wealth, both quantitatively and qualitatively. In accordance to IMF, US GDP per capita is 7.2 times more compared to China GDP per capita and US households income per capita is 11 times more compared to China household income per capita. Japan GDP per capita is 4.8 times more and household income per capita is 6 times more than China. Mexico GDP per capita is 1.4 times more and household income per capita is 2 times more than China.

China's strategy of rebalancing its economy is to close the differences between GDP per capita and household income per capita. There are some advancement in China's rebalancing strategy from the China consumption level. For the 1st three quarters in 2015, national income per capita for whole of China experienced a 7.7% growth. It was 0.1% higher compared to 1st half of 2015. Real GDP seems to be growing at 6.9% per year. Nominal GDP seems to be growing at 6.2%. This seems that household income per capita is growing faster than GDP, about 0.8% more. This is assuming growth in population is stagnant.

The rebalancing outcome is showing up the in the reversal of gap between household income growth and GDP growth. After many years where GDP growth far exceeds household income growth or consumption growth, reversal is important to enable consumption proportion of GDP to return to safe and healthy levels. However, the narrowing of gap is not fast enough to provide a meaningful balance when President Xi steps down at the end of his term in 2023. There are many ways to calculate household income proportion for GDP. There is no one best method. In accordance to established sources, household income as a % of GDP has hit bottom in 2011 at 41%.It is currently on the rise, which will reach 44% in 2014. Another estimate puts the share at 60% in 2011. There is definitely some discrepancy in the data.

If the household income is about 50% of GDP, the % will increase to 53% in 2023 with 8 years of GDP growth at 6.9% and household income growing at 7.7%. The level is only 3% higher and way below the modern day average. China will still be heavily reliant on foreign investment and surplus in its current account. It will take at least 25 years for household income to rise by 10% of GDP, which is the bare minimum for real rebalancing target.

It will take at least 10 to 15 years for sufficient adjustment to China's economy even the gap is closing at two times the speed. Its economy will only return to more sustainable growth with the scenario happening. Unless more radical economic policies are executed to fasten the household income growth and it consumption proportion of GDP, and unless more are being done to step up wealth transfer from state to household sector, we will not be able to see enough rebalancing for another 10 to 15 years.

Bohai Steel in China is at Stake

Bohai Steel in China is at Stake

Bohai Steel is one of the biggest steel factories in Tianjin, China. It has produced 22 million tons of steel every year, including bars and plates. This capacity let the deficit amount of the steel of the nationwide be reduced. The matter of fact, this factory was backed up by the government of Tianjin. BHS is a state-owned business group combined by four state-owned steel manufacturers. The four manufacturers are Tianjin Pipe Group corporation, Tianjin Iron & Steel Group Co., Ltd., Tianjin Tiantie Metallurgy Group Co., Ltd. And Tianjin Metallurgy Group Co., Ltd. The group is a massive production business group which specialized in sintering, iron making, steelmaking, continuous casting, steel rolling and metal productions.

Unfortunately, this factory is rumored to have serious debt problems with hundreds, and even more, of creditors, which cost as much as 192 billion yuan (equals to $28.8 billion US Dollars). The steel executives, the government, the bankers, and others related to the existence of Bohai Steel has been argued about its future. The committee has been formed by the Tianjin government to restructure Bohai Steel, but the bankers seem to have a disagreement with the plan. The bankers become very careful with the committee proposal to extend Bohai Steel loans and cut their debt interest for about 10%. Some of them are claiming to get Bohai Steel's land to be sold due to pay its debts.

The argue keep overwhelmed between the instruments. The government has been persistent to give Bohai Steel an extra chance to get up from its bankruptcy process, which make the governments considering two things; The government asks the bankers to continue to lend their money to Bohai Steel, but the interest is being paid by the government. Or, a debt for equity swap program. This last consideration is given due to the assets of Bohai Steel Factory, which has reached fabulous number (290 billion yuan, which equal to $43.5 billion US Dollar). When a global financial crisis occurred on 2008, Bohai Steel expanding their assets, following government program. The results are, this company has grown this big nowadays.

In the past years, the bankers willing to lend the money to Bohai Steel due to its wealth, rich company. They said that they thought it's going to be safe to lend them some several billion yuan. This conclusion doesn't make the creditor feel safe at all. They thought skeptically that it would be useless to restructure Bohai Steel if the government didn't make a very good management on the overall process and eliciting the transparency of the company. Bohai Steel will be ended like it was, buried in debt, said one of the executives. It has to be effective, otherwise, it's will have a problem with the implementation, said another executive. The government had this almost bankrupt Bohai Steel to cut their production by two third or, equal to 15 million tons in 2016. There is no new group news on Bohai Steel website since 2016.

A hundred bankers or the creditors included Bank of Tianjin, Bank of Beijing, Tianjin Binhai Rural Commercial Bank (Each of them has lent about 10 billion yuan to Bohai Steel), China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Industrial Bank.

Bohai Steel isn't alone to face their debt. The several other steel company has faced the same problem, and also the coal company. The government has determined their policy for this almost collapsed company, which is to cut their employee and production until below of the market demand. They also ask the financial institution to support these local steel companies.

Bohai Steel not just buried itself in debt, but also the subsidiary company of it. One of the worst is Tianjin Iron and Steel Group Co. At first, Bohai Steel has promised 9 percent yields to their affiliates, which cost 350 million yuan, but then disappointing them and missed the payment. This investment released by Tianjin Iron and Steel. Later known that Tianjin Iron and Steel also cannot repay their debt to the bank since 2011. Tianjin Iron and Steel also operate several companies like Tianjin Tiantie Metallurgy Group Co., Tianjin Pipe Corp., and Tianjin Metallurgy Group Co. Tianjin Iron and Steel has risen its debt from 32,8 billion yuan to 60 billion yuan. They raised 3-billion-yuan loan after sold their high yielding trust to their employee, but also cannot repay them. This makes the corporation in need of help from the bankers.

Tianjin Pipe Corp., a subsidiary of Bohai Steel, which is the only one who didn't cut their production, also in a big debt problem it reached 46 billion yuan. Bohai Steel also has a loan to its trading partners, Tewoo Group. It seems not just like the steel company problem like everybody see from the outside, but also the system problem inside the corporation and their subsidiary which make it decay.