Banks Bracing for Debt-Equity Swaps Revival

Banks Bracing for Debt-Equity Swaps Revival

Chinese debt-for-equity swap (DES) agreements remain a focus in 2017, following kick-off last year. It will take time before DES schemes really convert bad debt into equity.

Looking back the goal of the government of China is to recover the liability for equity switches and dispersal of Yuan's trillions of money that has been in a toxic loan even before it made the banks of the country choke. There were programs that were outlined in March 25, which is called the swap program by some of the administrators in Beijing and that may reflect the success of the project between 1999-2004. It is by which the bank took the stakes in more than 580 firms in altercation for the cancelation of the four hundred five Billion Yuan comprising of the loans that has been overdue.

Premier Li Keqiang has told the National People's Congress that a new kind of swaps may restrict the leverage ratio as well as the mitigate financial system risks of the company. He even elaborated that the debt interest in government for equity swaps occurred in the 24th of March during the Boao Forum for the Asian conference of the government and business leaders in Hainan. However, there are lots of alterations that occurred in 2004. The banks of the country for instance are altering far more with bad debts than they used to. The banks had estimated roughly 2 Trillion Yuan worth of non-performing loans on the books by the end of February, that rose in around 35% worth of value from the same time in 2015.

Starting in 2004, the banks without any other choices have been dealing with bad loans thus they sell them at a lower rate to the 4 asset management firms or AMCs of the government. That made them look for investors who will be very much willing to carry all the debts and burdens that they have. However, with bad loans up surging in the current years, the AMCs have become unwilling in accepting bad debts. As Li and some other officials of the government have laid their plans and their willingness to support, there was a bank executive that relays to Caixin that he thinks that the debt equity swaps can actually help the banks. Some other bankers as well as economists say that they are reaching the plan with carefulness.

The sources have told Caixin that the March 25 meeting of the government has relayed fundamentals for the fresh programs, even as of the early part of April, a lot of details hasn't been finalized. Some of the officials that were there came from the State Council, People's Bank of China, China Banking Commission, Ministry of Finance to name some. In the middle part of March, the Chairman said that the technical information must be polished even before the new swap programs may be finalized. There is just one probable obstacle involved and that is the rule that bars the banks from holding the stakes in non-financial firms. However, this issue may also be solved through a special arrangement. The ban might also be waived.

In the debt equity swaps project, there has always been an objection and that is while it is bringing ease and comfort to some banks and firms, it brings the state an added payable. This is according to the statement of Wang Xuedong, he is the chairman of the financial company CDB, it is situated in Beijing. The money came from the taxpayers and that made the program work, he insisted. Tis brought arguments to some of the experts over the new swaps program on ideas that it may just shift accordingly in handling the non-performing loans to the banks from the firms. They are also scared of being overseen and that the rules may bring the country its weakest state. The banks must not be used to handling and dealing with the economic downturn, because they will lose if a company will fail. There must be a balance to withstand the crisis and to surpass it. however, the government can also help by imposing the rules to aid the banks in managing their debts.

Videos of Stock Analysts under Fire

Videos of Stock Analysts under Fire

(Beijing) – Financial and investment circles in China are buzzing over the amateur videos being made by some analysts in the market in order to get the attention of investors. Lately some videos have amateur videos have surfaced on some websites and mobile apps which depict some analysts presenting their views and recommending the investors to buy some certain stocks on in the light of the strong research of their firm.

On April 7, a clip appeared online, showing a young women, who was dressed in traditional Chinese attire, talking about why the investors should buy the stocks of Shenzen-listed ZTE Corp., a company providing telecommunication equipment and services. A stock analyst from Founder Securities, Liao Lei, suggests in a two-minute video that it was worth investing in ZTE because research has shown that its income has been stronger than ever, it is also being managed by a team which is young, capable and ambitious. It also seemed from the video that it was filmed in a living room or a kitchen.

Financial workers widely shared this video on social media. It became popular because of the information being presented by the analyst which impressed the viewers. It should be kept in mind that the industry in which analysts work is marked by professionals who have shun to spotlight and most of them imitate the tone of news commentators.

Several other similar clips have also been uploaded to streaming sites, with analysts representing various brokerages firms including Haitong Securities and Essences Securities recommending stocks to the investors.

Some critics are of the view that the clips are a publicity stunt. According to a public fund manager, he did not even pay attention to what was being said by them in the videos. Moreover, he also added that everybody was doing it as it has started to become a trend and some have been doing it for fun and for them the analysis's quality does not matter.

A researcher form a securities firm said that there has been a fierce competition in some recent years and it was necessary for analysts to somehow catch the attention of investors. Some critics have also cited the article written by chief economist of Essence Securities, Gao Shanwen, which was published a few years back in which he argued that due to a surge in the marketing tricks the quality of the research of the securities' firms has been declining.

One macroeconomic analyst working for a brokerage firm, on conditions of anonymity told that some of his coworkers have turned to social media and streaming websites in order to promote their analyses. He also added that women featured in the most videos that have been quite popular.

These discussions have surfaced when the securities regulator has asked the brokerage firm to properly supervise and manage how their employees advertise their corporate research reports being published, especially on social media.

The notice which was issued by Shanghai branch of the China Securities Regulayory Commisison (CSRC) addressed the brokerages and conveyed that CSRC is concerned because research reports of some securities firm have drawn attention of the investors and made the media as well as the public to question the ethics and professionalism of the analysts and researchers of securities firms.

The regulator's note, which was also viewed by Cixin, did not indicate the reports or firms which published the. A similar notice was also issued by the Beijing office of CSRC, the employee of a security firm said.

The branch of CSRC which is Hubei, in January also criticized the securities firm Changjiang Securities over a report which according to them had a poor title, but it was not elaborated by them.

Minsheng Securities, in December bowed to the pressure being put by the regulators and reprimanded the authors who used slangs in two research reports which were widely circulated. IT said that the researchers made use of quite an inappropriate writing style and eventually caused bad social influence.

Ben Bernanke on China Policy

Ben Bernanke on China Policy

Ben Bernanke was the name behind the economic decisions of George W. Bush. He was an economic adviser of the former US president in 2005. After the reign of the former president, he joined the Brookings Institute. His role is prominent, since he became the famous Fellow in Residence while playing the role of the senior adviser to the Citadel in Chicago. During the global financial crisis in 2004, he took the spotlight and drew the attention of the public. That went on until he resigned as the chairman of the US Federal Reserve in 2014. He has been managing the central bank as a government and that brought him to the hardest options. He was the one who acted on the bail out American Insurance Group, yet nobody acknowledged his efforts. He added, if they will not act, then, who will dare to do that? At age 62, he still has some ideas in mind about the monetary as well as the fiscal policies that must be polished.

He was also the man behind the Target Fiscal Policy that has been suggested to China. He implies that it can help in reducing the pressure on the monetary policy and through the years, it will be of help to the entire nation in terms of their developing consumption driven economy. In an interview headed by Caixin, he elaborated the thought and he said that a well conceptualized fiscal investment may boost the productivity in the long run while giving added demand for a short period of time. Compared to some nations, he added, china has the fiscal capability to add more investments. During the interview, there were some questions thrown to him that he answered accordingly. Some of the questions Caixin threw at him are as follows.

Caixin asked, it has been deliberated upon that the Yuan must be criticized a little bit. What can Ben say about it? He answered confidently that he doesn't believe that a big depreciation will do good for the country, it is due to the fact that it will export the deflation to the other parts of the globe and that may mean a rebound on China in a bad manner. If it is not good to anyone, why, if the depreciation is not massive? What if it is just light, is that probable? Are there still any bad effects? The hardship in managing the depreciation problem is still there. If there is a definite, continuous depreciation, then it will just boost more capital outflows, since the citizens will be making an effort to get out of the Yuan as the depreciation went on. It will be best to just have a less foreseeable trail.

What was the idea of Mr. Ben Bernanke about the Yuan internationalization in the past years, has it gained a new pace? What can he say about it? It is by far good enough. That is because it shows the truth that China is really making an effort to come up with a good financial markets with more openness, more rules and more liquid as well. In that sense, Yuan is not yet used in an international manner just the same as the dollars as well as the other monetary are, however, that is not essential at all. But in time, it will be important.

How about Mr. Ben Bernanke's point of view about the China's pushing to enhance the standing of the SDR in an international monetary system? From his perspective, he doesn't think that it is realistic at all, since the SDR will just use a primary international currency. It is not about how much for now, since it does not have any fundamental infrastructure and there are no liquid markets for the SDR assets, since there are for the assets dominating the dollars as well as the euros. He recently said it's probably fair to say that looking at the markets and the economy globally, there are some positive trends. We're seeing, for example, pretty good performance in China, we're seeing some pickup in Europe, even Japan is doing better. So the increased optimism, including the optimism in markets, is not solely due to the expectations of the new administration's policies. It's due in part to a somewhat broad-based improvement in the global economy.

Lastly, what Mr. Ben Bernanke thinks about digital virtual currencies in the next years to come? From his viewpoint, technology wise, he thinks that the technologies do offer a lot of possibilities in terms of improving the payment systems and how people will go through their daily lives with the transactions. Also he thinks that the non-government sponsored currencies such as bitcoin will have a place in the international financial system. But people will still go on in using dollars, Yuan and even euros and the technological advancement will play a vital role in making the payment system more effective and organized.

Multiple for China's Economic Growth

Multiple for China's Economic Growth

China's economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter of 2017. The government is aiming for growth of around 6.5 percent in 2017. Lets take a look back at China's Economic Growth.

America Enterprise Institute leading economic analyst and researcher published a write-up on a 2014 study made by Credit Suisse to measure China's household wealth by geographical regions and sovereigns. In deciding on the argument whether China will surpass US to become the world biggest economy, the only right way is to compare the GDP between the two rich nations. Some advocated the use of nominal GDP using prevailing exchange rates for being the better measure. Others preferred on the use of GDP adjusted by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). The analyst do not agree to the use of the above 2 measures due to various reasons.

Debate has been ongoing as to which country's economy is the largest currently. GDP adjusted by PPP will put China on the top spot ahead of US, while other indicators will put US ahead of China. The news and evidence used to back China's economy as the largest is to emphasize the importance of competition in Sino-America and single our China's economic threat and might. A undisputed fact is China has been enjoying higher economic growth compared to US. It is a matter of time before China will surpass US. One indicator points otherwise, which the the national wealth. From 2008 to 2014, US came out tops in terms of total national wealth amount.

Estimate by Credit Suisse puts private wealth for Americans at $42.9 trillion. China's national wealth is only at $4.7 trillion. This implies US is about 9 times wealthier compared to China. GDP ratios point a very different picture. At end 2014, China's official GDP was $9.8 trillion while US official GDP was $16.77 trillion, which is about 2 times more compared to China.

The phenomena and observation might confuse many economists at first. GDP was expected to measure wealth created for the period of measurement, and is similar to total income produced by a thriving enterprise.

Credit Suisse estimation methodology is not made known. If it is almost proportional to the economy's assets, together with labor force for each country from US or China to manufacture goods and provide services, American income generated is 5 times more valuable compared to Chinese income on a per dollar basis. In share market terms, US had a P/E ratio of 5 times compared to China P/E ratio. The ratio is not accurate but it is possible. US should have a higher ratio than China, but the exact multiple of 5 times is hard to ascertain. The argument for China overtaking US economically is not intelligent or fascinating. However the argument is relevant to highlight the Chinese economic growth and the right thinking behind it.

GDP is the total measure of all goods & services produced in an arbitrary period of measurement, and it accounts for improvement and deterioration of capital stock. OECD has their own definition which is sum of all residential and institutional economic units involved in production and includes taxes but excludes subsidies and miscellaneous products.

Many researchers are developing around the multiple ratio ideas, hopefully to understand it better in the future years. The analyst article is a useful trigger point for thinking about the economy of China. It is not so much about trying to figure out which economy is the largest in the world, but to determine the growth quality based on the value being assigned to existing and forward growth. Political leaders from Washington DC and Beijing can implement better economic policies based on a more informed understanding on the growth measurement. China could use the new lights shed on the types of growth for their economic reform process.